We talk about the rate cuts expectations with the Fed, and the difference between what the market might hope versus what the Fed is most likely to do. Dan talks about how Trump's negotiations with Russia, Ukraine, and global allies are rewiring international economic relationships. We talk about which sectors stand to benefit from Ukraine's critical mineral resources and how oil price dynamics could impact both inflation and US producers. Oil price dynamics and the Goldilocks zone. Tariffs as a negotiation tool.
We end the episode with a Luncheon Club Lobster Roll market recipe.
CHAPTERS
00:01 - Introduction: The rate cut fairy tale misleading investors
03:38 - Ukraine-Russia negotiations and European tensions
05:29 - Critical mineral deals and their investment implications
07:26 - Trump's "transactional diplomacy" revolution explained
08:57 - Tariffs as negotiation tools: Success and limitations
13:49 - Oil price dynamics: The Goldilocks zone for US producers
16:43 - Tax policy uncertainty and market implications
18:18 - Three essential market tips for navigating uncertainty
20:41 - Market Recipe: The NYSE Luncheon Club Lobster Roll recipe
Get the full Luncheon Club Lobster Roll
MARKET RECIPE
The Luncheon Club Lobster Roll 🦞
Today we’ve got a vintage Wall Street market recipe for you.
"The trading floor was where we yelled. The Luncheon Club was where traders talked. It was an era where camaraderie was King. For a long time, I thought that era was bygone, but it isn't. When I talk to the young on Discord, I see the band is still playing! I’m happy they’re here. So this one’s a nod to the old haunt, and the new players in the game. Let’s give them something good to eat. Buon apetito, gentlemen!”
Ingredients:
1 lb. fresh lobster meat, steamed
1 brioche roll, toasted and buttered
Fresh lemon wedges
⅓ cup premium mayonnaise
2 tablespoons fresh lemon juice
2 tablespoons finely diced celery
1 tablespoon fresh chives, minced
1 teaspoon Dijon mustard
Sea salt and white pepper (to taste)
Fresh dill sprigs
Butter lettuce leaves
Potato chips (Cape Cod chips recommended)
Steps:
Mix the sauce: mayo, lemon juice, celery, chives, Dijon, salt, and pepper
Gently combine with lobster meat
Butter and toast the brioche roll
Line with butter lettuce
Add lobster mixture
Garnish with dill and serve with lemon + chips
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